China’s Economic Surprise in the First Quarter: 5.3% GDP Growth and Strong Performance in All Three Sectors

In the first quarter of 2024, mainland China’s economy grew by a surprising 5.3% year-on-year, surpassing the forecast of 4.8%. This growth was driven by strong performance in all three sectors of consumption, exports, and investment.

The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) reached about RMB29.6 trillion (US$4.09 trillion) during this period. While the scale of the industrial sector and total consumption fell short of expectations at 6.1% compared to the anticipated 6.6%, overall economic growth remains strong.

Total retail sales of consumer goods rose to about RMB12 trillion (US$1.66 trillion), marking a 4.7% year-on-year increase that was lower than the expected 5.4%. Meanwhile, investment in fixed assets increased by RMB10 trillion (US$1.38 trillion) or 4.5% year-on-year, exceeding the anticipated 4% growth.

In terms of sectors, the service sector expanded by 5% in the first quarter, with transport, storage, and postal services seeing a growth of 7.3%, while tourism, accommodation, and food and beverage services also increased by 7.3%. Additionally, disposable income for individuals in China during the first quarter was RMB11,539 (US$1,595), showing a 6.2% year-on-year increase after adjusting for price factors.

Overall, despite some shortfalls in specific sectors such as industrial production and consumption growth rates falling short of expectations